Will It Fly—and what impact will it really have?
I have spent enough time developing products to know that enthusiasm can carry an idea further than the evidence should. By the time the difficult questions are asked, considerable time, money and credibility may already have been committed.
That is why we are placing so much importance on the AKOS Will It Fly? report.
It is not intended to be a quick score or an automated verdict. It develops progressively through the first five AKOS phases, as the opportunity is clarified, the product and customer are defined, possible development routes are compared and the evidence behind the proposition is examined.
Its first job is to expose weaknesses before expenditure expands. That may mean an unsupported market assumption, an unresolved technical dependency, an unrealistic manufacturing route or an environmental claim that does not yet withstand scrutiny.
Its second job is to give founders, investors and programme sponsors a disciplined basis for deciding what should happen next. That decision might be to proceed, investigate a specific uncertainty, reshape the proposition, impose conditions, pause—or stop.
But finding weaknesses is not the same as trying to kill an idea. A promising proposition should emerge stronger because the report identifies what needs to be demonstrated, which evidence matters and where the next affordable work should be concentrated.
A report that simply confirms what everyone hoped to hear has not done its job.
Impact is integral to that assessment. A product does not become sustainable simply because it contains a crop, fibre or other biological material. We still need to understand where the feedstock comes from, how it is processed, what energy, water and chemistry are involved, whether the product performs, how people and communities are affected and what actually happens at the end of its life.
The Sustainable Development Goals can help structure that thinking, but only if they are connected to relevant targets, measurable outcomes and evidence. Adding an SDG badge to a proposition is not impact assessment.
The early Will It Fly? report will therefore include an Impact and SDG position: the intended benefit, the material trade-offs, the claims that may be supportable and the evidence still required. It will not pretend that an early assessment is a verified Life Cycle Assessment or the final Impact Due Diligence Report. Impact evidence must continue to develop and be challenged throughout the complete AKOS journey.
We are now testing how the prototype brings these questions together, classifies the supporting evidence and preserves human responsibility for the resulting decision. The work is real, but it remains in development. We will continue to show progress without claiming capability before it has been demonstrated.